Inflation climbed to 3.8% in April as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue rippling through global supply chains [NBC News]. Economist Jan Hatzius projects the surge will peak within weeks, offering potential relief to consumers and policymakers [Bloomberg Markets].

The spike compounds challenges facing the Trump administration as it pursues aggressive trade and military policies. The Pentagon valued the Iran conflict at $29 billion, with Defense Secretary Hegseth avoiding questions about long-term funding implications [NYT Politics].

Meanwhile, commodity prices reflect war-driven scarcity: tomato prices have soared due to combined effects of the Iran conflict, new tariffs, and adverse weather [NYT Business]. Food inflation remains a political liability ahead of midterm elections, where Democrats have expanded their generic ballot lead over Republicans [The Hill].

On the Federal Reserve front, the Senate continues advancing Trump's pick Christopher Warsh to chair the central bank—a decision that could reshape monetary policy as inflation moderates. Economists expect relief by summer, but near-term price pressures persist across groceries and global commodities.